Cumulative processes in basketball games
We assume that the current score of a basketball game can be modeled by a bivariate cumulative process based on some marked renewal process. The basic element of a game is a cycle, which is concluded whenever a team scores. This paper deals with the joint probability distribution function of this cumulative process, the process describing the host's advantage and its expected value. The practical usefulness of the model is demonstrated by analyzing the effect of small modifications of the model parameters on the outcome of a game. The 2001 Lithuania–Latvia game is used as an example.